Is an interest rate led UK recession now inevitable?


In a recent analysis, Simon French, Chief Economist & Head of Research at Panmure Gordon, shared his thoughts on the current interest rate backdrop and its impact on the UK’s growth outlook for 2024 and 2025. As noted in previous research notes, we do think that the core inflation problems that have fueled the UK asymmetry will begin to moderate as headline inflation in food and energy begin to moderate. However, there are refinancing and investment decisions taking place within this dislocated rate environment that will reduce economic activity going forward. The longer the UK remains an inflation outlier the more the downside risks to our forecast will grow.

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Simon French

Managing Director, Head of Research

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