28th December 2022 2022 has been a punishing year for investors and for savers. Global stock market indices have declined by an average of 18%. This will be their worst year since 2008. Bond markets that trade debt issuance – a safe haven in times of economic stress…
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13th December 2022 This Thursday sees the Bank of England poised, once again, to raise UK interest rates. This will be the ninth successive meeting this has happened. Financial markets believe that the headline UK interest rate will go up by a further 0.5%, to 3.5%. This decision…
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“All models are wrong, but some are useful”. This quote from British statistician, George Box, has taken on added resonance for the UK economy in recent months. Economic models have moved from the periphery of economic debate to the centre in just under two months. It has been a…
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To misquote the late entertainer, Eric Morecambe, Liz Truss had all the right instincts, but not necessarily in the right order. To acknowledge this point is important now that her short tenure looks set to go down as the most chaotic of modern times. These instincts were for economic…
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It is a popular misconception that the surge in energy prices and its impact on inflation and the cost-of-living crisis is down to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In reality, the current situation has come around due to the culmination of years of underinvestment in oil and gas,…
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Social Media, Newspapers, Broadcasters and Think Tanks inevitably see economic events through their own subjective lens. For some of these platforms, Kwasi Kwarteng’s “Mini budget” was a long-overdue pivot towards a lower tax, smarter regulated UK economy. For others it was a regressive gamble that owed more to shoring…
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The current Conservative leadership contest has been dominated by economics. Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak have laid out differing visions for tax and spending – and then repeatedly argued over the impact their respective policies will have on inflation, economic growth and the budget deficit. It has recently been…
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1 August 2022 This Thursday will see the Bank of England raise its headline interest rate for the sixth time in a row. Having increased interest rates by 0.1% and 0.25% increments so far, the Bank’s decisionmakers are actively considering a 0.50% increase as they grapple with UK…
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The last few months have confirmed that Phase Three of the global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is now well underway. Phase One involved the distribution of emergency financial support on an unprecedented scale. This rapid intervention saved millions of jobs and businesses. Phase Two was the cautious withdrawal…
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It is rather reassuring that Conservative MPs are putting the economy at the forefront of their leadership campaigns. Jostling to succeed a Prime Minister alleged to have uttered “f*ck business” in response to their Brexit concerns, UK businesses are looking for candidates offering stability, and rather less open hostility.
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Emma Hardy is the Member of Parliament for Hull West and Hessle and is also a member of the Treasury Select Committee. Simon French is Chief Economist at Panmure Gordon. The COVID-19 pandemic has come at a huge human cost with excess UK deaths now exceeding 150,000. Long-COVID,…
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The UK looks set to have a shrinking economy during the second quarter of 2022. The contraction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during April, announced yesterday, is likely to supplemented by a slowdown in June due to the Platinum Jubilee bank holidays. This will leave the UK devoid of…
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